|Business| Think through every possible outcome.

Thinking through all potential outcomes encourages intellectual honesty, more than the idealized thinking we are often subconsciously geared towards. In business, it’s easy to lean toward optimistic scenarios but results are generally better when thinking through every possibility good or bad.

Every day, decisions are made based on imperfect information. From my experience, the best results in business come after long thought experiments where I walk through every possible outcome I can think of. This process gives clarity and generates information I hadn’t previously considered.

Thinking deeply about outcomes reveals insights that may not be obvious at first glance. By carefully examining what could happen, I notice new factors, risks, and opportunities that allow for more informed decisions. Without this approach, decisions are made more rapidly and unconsciously. While quick decisions are often necessary, they limit the amount of information available and can reduce the chances of success.

A practical way to apply this is by running mental simulations: “If I do this, what could happen? What if I don’t do this? What’s the best-case scenario? What’s the worst-case scenario? How likely are each of these outcomes?” By playing out different scenarios, you not only test your assumptions but also create a mental roadmap for navigating potential challenges and opportunities.